Global Air & Space Chiefs’ Conference, London – With an effect akin to firing a cannon in a greenhouse, Professor Justin Bronk warned that the Russians are “on the path” to winning the war in Ukraine, and then widen the war potentially into a NATO country.
This was how Bronk, a well regarded Senior Research Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute opened address on the first day of the Chief of the Air Staff’s Global Air & Space Chiefs’ Conference 2024 being held in London (17-18 July). To meet the threat, he called for Air Forces to focus on shorter term immediate requirements such as building up ammunition and spares stocks, ensuring aircraft were brought up to a readiness that could endure over time, and to practise their primary mission sets.
The theme of the two day conference is Deterrence in theory and Practice. Speakers at the first session looked at space power lessons from current conflicts. The growing reliance by the military of allies and partners on commercial space and particularly satellite operations has meant that commercial satellites are now being regarded by countries such as Russia and China as legitimate targets. Examples cited included the supply of satellite based intelligence to Ukraine by supporting countries prior to and during its war with Russia, which allowed it to prepare for the initial invasion and has subsequently assisted it on the battlefield.
The growth in the number of satellites is phenomenally quick. While there are currently around 10,200 above the earth today, said Julia Balm, Research Associate at King’s College London, this number was expected to explode to over 60,000 by 2030. China’s ambition alone is to launch 13,000 of its own satellites according to one speaker.
Deterring China from aggression is increasingly difficult, according to Dr Brendan Mulvaney director, at the China Aerospace Studies Institute. China and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) under President Xi Jinping have continued a rapid building programme for all of its combat arms to the extent that it is now a peer competitor to the USA. One of the driver’s of its ambitions is to position itself to counter outside intervention that may hinder it from achieving its goals, including bringing Taiwan into the State.
Developments include a range of missile capabilities, such as its arguable lead in hypersonic missiles, the build up of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) including its aircraft carrier programme, and its surge into space. To contest this growth, Mulvaney suggested that a collective alignment of countries that did not share China’s vision for world order would require the highest level of military integration.
One of the afternoon sessions addressed Space Deterrence and Integrated Deterrence. General Chance Saltzman, Chief of Space Operations, U.S. Space Force questioned the very word deterrence, which has grown out of the nuclear weapon age. “Deterrence lies in the mind of the adversary,” he suggested, with the most credible way of deterring that adversary lying in the ability to demonstrate that they could be ‘denied, degraded, disrupted and destroyed’. With regard to space, it has to be considered as a domain in its own right where potential aggression had to be anticipated and the power for ‘friendly assets’ to endure had to be assured.
An afternoon session during the first day addressed how industry needed to engage with the military to develop and deliver technological advantage with perspectives from Susan Addison senior vice president for U.S. programmes, BAE Systems; Dave Appleby, Group Business Development director UK, Leonardo; Richard Goodall, head of Strategy, Cyber Programmes UK, Airbus Defence and Space; Jill Albertelli, president of Military Engines, Pratt and Whitney; and Heidi Grant vice president, Global Growth & Engagement, Boeing Defense, Space & Security.
One of the themes of the day was the assertion that governments opposed to the ideologies of Russia and China needed to do much more in terms of informing their citizens about the threat to their world order and how their lives could change if it was not protected.
by Andrew Drwiega
